Impact case study database

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During the centenary of WWI, Strachan’s research had a profound influence on the creation of UK commemoration events, which included the participation of tens of thousands of individuals and reached millions of viewers through live television broadcasts [S1]. Strachan’s research on the intractable global nature of WWI, the transformations it wrought to battle and strategy, and the importance within this context of American sacrifices thereby shaped broader public understandings of the Great War and enhanced our cultural heritage for generations to come. Specifically, these research findings:

1. Broadened centenary events, particularly the 2016 commemorations of Jutland and the Somme, to be more inclusive and international;

2. Extended the battle commemorations of the Somme (2016), Passchendaele (2017), and Amiens (2018) to span months instead of a single event;

3. Placed special emphasis on the Anglo-French relationship within overall planning for the centenary, culminating in the 2018 London commemoration of Marshal Foch’s appointment as Supreme Allied Commander;

4. And led to the creation of specific memorial events on the Isle of Islay in 2018 to recognize the sacrifice of 600 American troops who lost their lives when the SS Tuscania and HMS Otranto sank.

Overall, approximately 35,000,000 people across the UK participated directly in at least one activity of the First World War Centenary Programme with millions more watching the live BBC coverage – 78% of the UK population over 14 years was estimated to be aware of the coverage [S2, pp.ii & 17-18]. Strachan was centrally involved in designing hundreds of commemoration events for this programme, as well as for additional centenary events in France. He served in a leading role on the Scottish National Committee on the Centenary of the First World War (WW100), on the Commonwealth War Graves Commission (CWGC) chairing the 1914-18 Committee, on the UK National Committee for the Centenary of the First World War, and on the corresponding national advisory committee for the French government (Comité Scientifique, Mission du Centenaire de la Première Guerre Mondiale). As attested to by the Prime Minister’s Special Representative for the Commemoration of the Centenary of the First World War, “ Throughout, he [Strachan] was the government’s principal “go-to” historian, a central player in a highly acclaimed national commemorative, diplomatic and pedagogical undertaking that is without precedent” [S3].

Through this influence, Strachan wove his new research findings into particular centenary events, as developed in the examples below. The Vice Chairman of the CWGC notes that, “ As one of the world’s leading experts on WWI, one would have thought that Sir Hew could rely entirely on his past work, but what impressed me… was the fresh insight he provided based on further research and continuous re-examination of our assumptions about how the war began and the way it was conducted” [S4].

(1) Broadening Centenary Events to Be More International and Inclusive

Strachan’s research on the inherently global nature of the Great War [R1] helped broaden UK planning for the centenary to be more inclusive and international. Commemorations for Jutland on Orkney (31 May 2016) included the British Prime Minister and the German President, as well as other dignitaries, naval representatives, and military bands from both nations [S1, pp. 2-3]. Similarly, commemorations for the Somme began with a ceremony at the Thiepval Memorial in France (1 July 2016) led by the French President and members of the British Royal Family, but also inclusive of Canadian participants including the Royal Canadian Artillery brass band [S1, pp. 7-18]. The event was attended by over 10,000 people and aired on BBC2 with 1,190,000 viewers [S1, pp. 19-20]. The Vice Chairman of the CWGC attests that: “ *There had perhaps been some unease in Government circles about the extent to which Commonwealth nations should participate, possibly fearing accusations that Britain was still acting “imperially’. It seemed to me that Sir Hew’s research and briefings on the international nature of the war helped to allay those concerns. The result for both Jutland and the Somme were two international events watched by tens of millions of people.*” [S4]

(2) Extending Battle Commemorations to Span Months

As Chair of the 1914-18 Committee of the CWGC, Strachan was directly involved in planning the centenaries of the battles of the British empire, including Jutland (2016), the Somme (2016), Passchendaele (2017), and Amiens (2018)—all of which were UK official events—-as well as Arras (2017) which was specifically marked by the Scottish government. These events stressed Strachan’s new research findings on the transformation of battle into lengthy and indecisive engagements [R2]. To recognize the extraordinary duration of these battles, and properly memorialize the sacrifices they entailed, commemorations were explicitly designed to span months—particularly on the Somme, which ultimately involved 80 separate events between July and November 2016 [S5]. The Chair of the Scottish Commemorations Panel corroborates that “ The Centenary Commemorations of the Battles of the Somme [2016], of Passchendaele [2017] and of Amiens [2018] all had the mark somewhere, nationally and internationally and throughout, of Sir Hew’s remarkable and highly esteemed scholarship on how a lengthy campaign over months produced such a modest result, and he was frequently consulted thereon.” [R2, S6]

(3) Placing Special Emphasis on the Anglo-French Relationship

Moreover, Strachan’s research findings on how such lengthy battles broadened notions of strategy, heightening the importance of alliances [R3], led to special emphasis being placed on the Anglo-French relationship within overall planning for the centenary. Indeed, Strachan served as a bridge between the UK and French planning committees, coordinating approaches and creating special recognition for the alliance on both sides of the channel. These efforts culminated in a special event, held in London on 26 March 2018, to recognize and remember Marshal Foch, the French military leader appointed Supreme Allied Commander of the war effort [S7]. As the Prime Minister’s Special Representative attests, “ I think it is true to say that the UK’s special efforts with the centenary of the battle of Amiens in 2018 in that city and the event in London [2018] to mark the centenary of Marshal Foch’s appointment as Supreme Allied Commander early that year would have struggled without Sir Hew’s influence and his stress on the importance of the Anglo-French relationship to Entente strategy. They were both warmly received in France.” [S3]

(4) Memorializing American Sacrifices

Strachan’s research on American entry into the war and their importance in hastening victory [R3, R4] shaped centenary planning through the creation of specific memorial events dedicated to American sacrifices. For example, “ Mention must also be made of the Centenary Commemorations on the Isle of Islay of the loss of SS Tuscania and HMS Otranto in February 1918 and October 1918 respectively, with the combined loss of over 600 American troops on their way to fight in Europe. This was an opportunity to reflect Sir Hew’s research by recognizing the contributions of the United States to the war’s outcome. The Islanders of Islay… went to remarkable lengths to bury and then exhume the bodies of those young Americans for their subsequent repatriation.” [S6] The 2018 commemoration was attended by HRH The Princess Royal and the US Ambassador to the United Kingdom, among other dignitaries, with ships of four national navies lying symbolically offshore [S8, S9].

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Between 2015 and 2020, DeVore’s research findings have enhanced national security in democracies by improving military preparedness and weapons acquisition programmes. Specifically, DeVore’s research on how the accelerating pace of technological innovation poses deep challenges to both military organizations and domestic defense industries has:

• Provoked an intense debate over the vulnerabilities and deficiencies of U.S. airborne forces, leading to reform initiatives to improve their mobility and firepower. These ultimately resulted in the 2018 creation of a light armored company within the 82nd Airborne Division equipped with parachutable wheeled armored vehicles and a programme to develop airborne tanks, launched in 2019—reflecting an investment of over USD26,000,000 in restoring and improving capabilities absent for over three decades.

• Led the Korean KF-X fighter jet programme to adopt a more collaborative approach with an increased number of international partners—to benefit from economies of scale, shared research and development costs, and technology transfers—while still protecting domestic strengths in electronics and flight control software. These changes have greatly ameliorated the risks of unexpected cost escalations while enhancing the likelihood of producing a functional combat aircraft that is globally price competitive.

1. Reforming U.S. Airborne Forces

DeVore’s research findings on the vulnerabilities and deficiencies of U.S. Airborne Forces, stemming from their organizational resistance to change, sparked an intense debate within the U.S. Army which ultimately led to concrete reforms—improving the mobility and firepower of paratroop units. The Army Times, widely subscribed to and read by army personnel, published an extended exposé and in-print debate on the future of U.S. airborne forces, based on the findings of When Failure Thrives [R1], with several leading decision-makers within the army agreeing with DeVore’s findings, including a retired Colonel, retired General, and a senior analyst with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments [S1, p.3-4, 9]. The Army Press deputy director notes that DeVore’s study “ stirred considerable controversy within the U.S. Army. Staff researchers for the U.S. House of Representatives Armed Services Committee contacted me to ask further questions about the monograph which they had used to deepen their understanding of Army capabilities and prepare their members for policy discussions… Even those advocates of Airborne forces who disagreed with DeVore’s message took away from his work the key insight that paratroopers must proactively work to reform themselves” [S2].

These debates then catalysed a reassessment of U.S. airborne forces and proposals for their reform and modernization. For example, analysts with RAND (an important U.S. defence think tank), cited DeVore’s findings on the unrealistically large size of airborne units, their extreme vulnerability to enemy fire, and their lack of ground mobility (i.e. vehicles) [S3, p.1-2, 7]. They then proposed re-envisioning the role of airborne forces around small-scale missions such as combatting terrorism and evacuating foreign nationals during emergencies, while also equipping paratrooper units with armoured vehicles and light armour [S3, p.4-5, 7-8]. Similarly, the Military Review published a proposal that would overcome these same deficiencies by reorganizing airborne assault capabilities around small reconnaissance squadrons equipped with light armoured vehicles [S4, p.93-94].

The U.S. Army ultimately embraced some of these proposed reforms, congruent with DeVore’s research findings that airborne forces lacked adequate firepower and mobility, while being overly vulnerable to artillery [R1]. “ The Army has, in the years since the publication of DeVore’s monograph, sought to rectify airborne forces’ shortcomings. Perhaps most impressive has been the Army’s efforts to address the lack of tank and anti-tank capabilities that DeVore had criticized.” [S2] In 2018, the Army created a light armoured company within the 82nd Airborne Division, equipped with parachutable wheeled armoured vehicles—an investment of over USD26,000,000 in vehicle procurement alone [S5]. As the Director of the US Army Combat Studies Institute attests, “recent developments in the force structure of the US Army’s airborne forces indicate that thinking officers took some of [DeVore’s] arguments to heart… two of the US Army’s five airborne brigades incorporated ‘Stryker’ light armored vehicles to their organic arsenals. The Stryker… will add a completely new dimension of protection to airborne forces, mitigating the historically vulnerable infantry forces’ greatest weakness” [S6]. In 2019, the Army then embarked on a project to develop airborne tanks to provide even greater firepower and mobility to its airborne units [S5]. “The US Army’s Combat Capabilities Development Command continues to refine its search for a light-weight air-droppable tank to accompany parachute forces on a forced-entry mission” [S6]. These initiatives represent the first time that U.S. airborne forces would have armoured vehicle capabilities since the 1990s, when the last of their tanks were retired from service, and the first new research and development on airborne tanks since the 1960s.

1. Shaping Technology Acquisition in South Korea’s Air Force

DeVore’s research findings on balancing domestic arms production with international collaborations—particularly leveraging global partnerships to overcome high research and development costs and create economies of scale while cultivating domestic production strengths [R2, R4-R6]—has shaped how South Korea’s government has pursued its K-FX fighter jet programme. Combat aircraft are one of the most sophisticated weapons systems to produce, with many expensive and technologically advanced sub-component systems that are difficult for states to develop comprehensively on their own. Historically, over 75% of combat aircraft development initiatives have failed to produce a functional aircraft that is globally price competitive. Only six successful programmes currently exist. Despite these odds, the South Korean Air Force initially launched its estimated USD16,000,000,000 fighter jet programme—the largest armaments project ever undertaken in South Korea—with high ambitions for self-sufficiency and only one partner, Indonesia.

DeVore was initially invited to share his research during the 2015 National Air Power Conference by two concerned Korean academics, who in 2017 became the National Security Advisor and Vice-Foreign Minister to the newly elected Korean government. This launched a period of sustained engagement where DeVore routinely participated in dialogues with Korean policymakers and Air Force officers on the difficulties of developing an indigenous fighter jet programme, including three additional National Air Power Conferences and seminars/workshops with government funded think tanks such as the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis, the Sejong Institute, the Institute for National Security Studies, and the East Asia Foundation [S7, S8]. DeVore was further granted a consulting contract on aerospace development with South Korea’s Agency for Defense Development, beginning in 2016 and still ongoing [S9].

Through these engagements, DeVore’s research findings reshaped the KF-X fighter project in key ways. Consistent with the importance of sharing costs and creating economies of scale [R4, R5], Korea has begun actively pursuing many more global partnerships, either as full co-developers or to provide difficult sub-components. As the Project Head for Korea’s Aerospace Technology Transfer Programme at South Korea’s Agency for Defense Development attests, “ Devore's research on leveraging global partnerships to overcome high research and development costs emphasized to us the importance of expanding our set of partners and obtaining high cost sub-systems from them” [S10]. The South Korean National Security Advisor elaborates that, “ Our government has thus gone to great lengths to preserve its co-development partnership with Indonesia when that later country’s financial problems led it to question whether to continue the project. We have also sought new partners, unsuccessfully negotiating a co-development partnership with Turkey and more successfully seeking focused technological arrangements with Israel and India” [S11]. At the same time, to protect existing strengths and comparative advantages [R2], Korea will focus on domestically developing important aspects of the flight control software and electronic systems. Indeed, the agreement with Israel also provides for technology transfer so that Korea can eventually develop their own expertise in aerospace radar. According to the First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, “ Dr. DeVore’s emphasis on the need for an activist state to overcome technological bottlenecks encouraged our Agency for Defense Development to proactively ‘target’ key technologies for either domestic development or acquisition through international partnerships” [S12]. The Project Head for Korea’s Aerospace Technology Transfer Programme further attests that “ these changes— more international partnerships, globalizing our supply chain, and seeking out technology transfers— are mitigating the risks of unexpected cost escalations and increasing the likelihood of the project becoming a success” [S10].

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Throughout the Syria crisis, from November 2013-2020, CSS research on the root causes of the conflict, the obstacles to an effective international response, and the prospects for reconstruction were actively solicited by the UK government, United Nations, and World Bank. Through sustained engagement with these beneficiaries, CSS research findings informed important national and international debates over intervention, diplomacy, and reconstruction. —shaping adopted policies and recommendations. Moreover, CSS engaged in extensive media outreach, providing much needed context and information for the general public. Specifically, CSS research findings:

• cautioned the UK government against intervention and recommended focusing on humanitarian aid and diplomacy—advice congruent with the policies ultimately adopted;

• encouraged the United Nations to engage more extensively with local Syrian actors and avoid zero-sum measures, an approach adopted by the second mediator;

• shaped World Bank and UN ESCWA policy recommendations on reconstruction aid to condition incremental funding release on inclusivity by the Syrian government; and

• provided important contextualization of the complex crisis for the general public via sustained media engagement.

1. Informing UK policy debates and response to the Syria crisis

CSS research explicitly sought to break through the highly polarized discourse over Syria and provide a deep grasp of the roots of the crisis while also exposing its multi-sided complexity and intractability [R1, R2]. Research findings cautioned against intervention, which could aggravate the crisis, and instead suggested focusing on diplomatic efforts and humanitarian assistance to conflict-affected Syrian communities [R3, R5].

Between 2013 and 2017, advice based on these research findings was regularly conveyed to UK government officials, informing evolving policy debates. Such consultations included with MI-5 (November 2013), the Prime Minister’s Office (October 2015), the Foreign Affairs Committee (October 2015), the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (July 2016), and gatherings of senior military officers (April 2016; February 2017). According to the FCO Deputy Head of Research Analyst’s section (and in charge of Syria), the Centre has “ consistently contributed to the policy debates on Syria within government throughout the past five years”, with its conferences and published volumes, “ essential aid to understanding of the conflict” [S1]. In testimony to the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, the Centre director underlined how the Islamic State was being utilized by regional actors such as Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia to advance their own interests [S2, pp.14-15]. The chair of the committee acknowledged this testimony was “extremely useful in setting out the international players and their interests” (in the Syria crisis) and as a basis for their questioning of the Foreign Secretary [S3]. CSS was also invited in April 2014 to make a submission on humanitarian assistance to the International Development Committee, advocating that DFID pursue a new UN Security Council resolution that would grant access to Syria for humanitarian agencies and foster local partners. The UK’s relative caution in refraining from most military involvement in the Syrian crisis combined with its higher profile in humanitarian assistance is consistent with the analysis and advice provided by the Centre.

1. Improving crisis diplomacy at the United Nations

CSS research further identified measures that could facilitate movement toward conflict resolution, specifically on how to improve crisis diplomacy. The UN International Peace Institute and Office of Political Affairs jointly solicited a study from the Centre on the efforts of the UN Syria mediators. The research findings recommended more balanced engagement with all stakeholders while avoiding zero-sum approaches that would damage the vital interests of any side [R3]. The resulting report was downloaded over 500 times ( https://www.ipinst.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/IPI-Rpt-Syrian-Crisis2.pdf). It has become one of the most read IPI papers and, in the words of a UN official, is “ a controversial report, because it speaks boldly about a very sensitive subject [but, being] authored by two of the foremost experts on Syria and on mediation, the conclusions were able to withstand the criticism… [It is] *the finest example of first-rate academics applying their knowledge to the policy world.*” [S4]

As a result, the subsequent mediator, the Special Envoy for Syria of the United Nations Secretary-General , “ engaged more…with local Syrian actors” [S5]. The Special Envoy’s political advisor also acknowledged that the work of the Centre had provided “ many insights valuable to my work… Raymond Hinnebusch and myself had some stimulating conversations about the ingredients of successful UN diplomacy in the Syrian case, including impartiality and inclusivity, from which we both profited and which helped inform our views in our various capacities. Also, [they] produced a valuable study of the diplomacy carried out by [the previous mediators] which helped inform our thinking under the subsequent UN mediator” [S5]. With a national level political settlement apparently out of reach, the Special Envoy turned to sponsoring localized de-escalations of violence. The Centre was then invited by the Berghof Foundation on behalf of the Finnish Foreign Ministry to research similar de-escalation agreements elsewhere, with a view to supporting these new efforts in the Syrian context [S6]. CSS identified considerable variance in context between local communities, especially the particular balance of power between factions within them, suggesting the need for decentralized solutions. Research findings also highlighted the strong potential for the regime to concede to localized solutions and power-sharing based on their own manpower shortages.

1. Emphasizing inclusivity within United Nations and World Bank reconstruction recommendations

CSS research findings emphasized ameliorating the consequences of the crisis via broadly inclusive humanitarian assistance and reconstruction efforts that avoided continuing the conflict by economic means [R4, R6]. From 2018-20, the Centre engaged extensively with both the World Bank and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for West Asia (ESCWA) to develop best practices and actionable recommendations for Syrian reconstruction. The resulting reports reflected the Centre’s advocacy of more inclusive reconstruction and concern with blanket sanctions.

CSS signed a memorandum of understanding with UN ESCWA to collaborate on two studies of the Syrian conflict: Syria at War: Five Years On (2016), which examined the damage to Syria’s economy and need for much increased humanitarian relief, and Syria at War: Eight Years On (2020), which identified the political obstacles to reconciliation and reconstruction. The reports directly incorporated CSS research findings: advising powerful external actors to use their leverage over conflict parties to nudge them toward more inclusive strategies of reconstruction. An ESCWA official attested that its partnership with CSS had been “strategic and synergistic” and the joint work, widely disseminated, had had “ a major impact on policy-makers and stakeholders in building awareness and consensus” [S7].

The World Bank similarly commissioned CSS to provide research on the geo-political context of Syrian reconstruction [R6], as part of its “Building for Peace in the Middle East” (https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/mena/publication/building\-for\-peace\-reconstruction\-for\-security\-sustainable\-peace\-and\-equity\-in\-the\-middle\-east\-and\-north\-africa\) initiative—which was disseminated to government policymakers in order to build consensus on a pathway forward [S8, pp. ix, 15]. The research findings showed how reconstruction had become a continuation of conflict by other means, as part of the proxy wars being waged on Syrian soil by foreign governments and recommending making reconstruction aid incremental and conditional on demonstrated inclusivity by the Syrian government [R6]. CSS researchers presented their findings at World Bank workshops in June and October 2018 and in a final 20,000-word report, published in March 2019 and formally launched on 15 July 2020 with a virtual event attended by more than 5000 people worldwide (with a condensed version published in Global Policy in 2020, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1758-5899.12779). The project manager affirmed that the “excellent research of the centre…helped the Bank to better articulate its thinking on reconstruction, peace-building and transition toward sustainable peace in the Middle East… [and] directly fed into the major report and recommendations on reconstruction and its operational applications [S9].

1. Interpreting the crisis for the “attentive public” through the media

Dr Omar Imady, as Centre Outreach Officer, was regularly involved in conveying CSS research findings in the public sphere. From November 2013-2020, he appeared regularly on live broadcasts that reached millions of viewers around the world (e.g. BBC Scotland, France24, Turkish TRT World, Arabic Euronews, and Australia’s ABC News). Videos of many of these broadcasts, 23 since 2018, were posted on the Centre’s website ( https://www.inspired-by-syria.com/media) with individual downloads per video ranging from 1,000 to 15,000 views [S10]. A Blog by CSS staff and fellows also provided regular interpretation of developments in the conflict ( https://www.inspired-by-syria.com/blog), with 6,671 people (viewers) visiting 16,849 times in the last year alone (between 2019 and 2020), a significant level of traffic given the extended length of conflict and general public focus on the pandemic. This commentary helped clarify the complex issues in the conflict for the attentive public.